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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.