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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."